Last year was a troubled and intense year in almost every way possible. The geo-political order was shaken beyond repair due to the war in Ukraine, and Europe is now in a constant state of alarm. Politically, the tensions from the previous years persist, and in some countries they are still rising. Here is an outlook for the world, a common-sense rundown of what you should know to keep track of in world news this year.

Brazil

Lula has a hazardous task ahead of him; he is currently the leader of a ‘wide front’ that comprises two different visions for the country. Politically, one side wants the new President to cool things off, by not antagonising Bolsonaro supporters and his main opponents. The more left-wing faction of his coalition argues that the key figures of the Bolsonaro presidency should be tried, along with the putschist crowd that invaded the three branches of government. Economically, the right-to-centre wing wants to slash the deficit and keep spending down to control inflation, while the other wants to take back control of public companies and have a more interventionist government.

China

China has entered this new year with the news of a demographic crisis, meaning that the stumbles from last year aren’t over. Another piece of data that shows this are the 60.000 deaths since the lifting of the Zero-Covid policy. Even if Xi Jinping has another strong term at the helm of the nation, the risk of economic stagnation and greater social unrest still looms. 

European Union

It seems that the experts’ worst fears about the state of the EU for the previous year were greatly exaggerated, “Lights out for Europe” never ended up happening. Ukraine is now the gravitational centre of the European Community’s foreign policy and will keep being so. However, the alliance is still divided between a more ‘hawkish’ approach spearheaded by Poland and the Baltic states, and a more cautious, realpolitik approach that is being represented by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. 

The EU’s challenges for this year are to fight inflation without taking the risk of recession, a task that Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has been trying to concretize for more than a year now.  Italy has a new PM who hasn’t shown all her cards yet, and Spain, a country that has been gaining leverage in the EU recently, will have a general election where anything can happen. 

Russia

This year will probably be a continuation of the last year for Russia: the economy will stagnate, or maybe fall even more; the Russian army will keep having problems with supply; and the country will continue to be more and more cornered on the international stage. The recent G7/EU measure of capping Russian gas has been extremely effective in hurting Russia’s exports. 

South Africa

The corruption scandal involving the country’s president Cyril Ramaphosa is agitating the political scene. All that while the South African economy isn’t in good shape, with high levels of unemployment and social unrest.

US

2022 wasn’t at all bad for President of the United States Joe Biden; he exceeded all of the specialists’ expectations on a variety of fronts. He had one of the most successful midterms ever, even though the Democrats lost the House; inflation seems to be waning; gas prices are also down; unemployment didn’t rise; and the American economy escaped a recession, growing 2% in 2022. 

This year will be much harder for the country’s President, though, as many economists warn of a very high risk of recession. Even if the economy slows abruptly, or even crashes, it is not certain if the Fed will make any significant moves to avoid a recession. This will certainly be more wood for the bonfire in a year when Biden is expecting government shutdowns and dozens of Congressional hearings targeting him.

UK

After the ‘troubled’ (to say the least) and brief passage of the Truss government, Rishi Sunak, Truss’s contestant and former Chancellor for the Boris government, stepped in to save the show. Although the new PM has resumed the country’s successful Ukraine policy, that hasn’t stopped him from facing a ‘Winter of Discontent’. Major strikes, chaos in the NHS, and the austerity measures announced by the Minister of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt have kept the government and by extension the Conservative Party, under fire. Of course, everything can change in 2023, but for now, Sunak and the Tories face an unprecedented defeat against Labour in the next general election.